No track record yet? Break the work into tasks and give each a best, likely, and worst case. A Monte Carlo PERT simulation rolls them up into a finish time you can put a number — and a confidence — on.
| Task | Best | Likely | Worst | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
85% confident all 3 tasks finish within 21.7 days.
| Confidence | Finish within |
|---|---|
50%confident | ≤ 18.1 days |
85%confident | ≤ 21.7 days |
95%confident | ≤ 23.7 days |