No track record yet? Break the work into tasks and give each a best, likely, and worst case. A Monte Carlo PERTA three-point estimating technique: it weights the likely case four times as heavily as the best and worst, so the average leans toward reality but the tails still count. simulation rolls them up into a finish time you can put a number — and a confidence — on.
| Task | BestThe optimistic case: how long it takes if everything goes right. A floor you'd rarely beat, not your usual estimate. | LikelyThe most likely case — what you'd bet on if you had to name one number. PERT weights this one most heavily. | WorstThe pessimistic case: how long it drags out if things go wrong. A realistic bad day, not the apocalypse. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
85% confident all 3 tasks finish within 21.7 days.
| Confidence | Finish within |
|---|---|
50%confident | ≤ 18.1 days |
85%confident | ≤ 21.7 days |
95%confident | ≤ 23.7 days |