What can we actually deliver?

Feed in how much your team finishes each period and run a simulation of ten thousand possible futuresMonte Carlo simulation: replay history thousands of times, drawing each period's output at random, to map the whole range of plausible outcomes instead of betting on one average. — then read off how much you can promise, and how sure you can be.

ThroughputThroughput: the number of items your team actually finishes in a period. The forecast resamples this history, so it captures your real variability, not a tidy average.
per
8 weeks of history · avg 4.5 per week
The question
How many items inweeks?
≈ 9 items in 2 weeks on a typical run
Forecast10,000 simulations
≥ 7items

85% confident of finishing at least 7 items in 2 weeks.

P85
4items14
ConfidenceFinish at least
50%confident
≥ 9 items
85%confident
≥ 7 items
95%confident
≥ 6 items
Seeded from your inputs — this link reproduces the exact same forecast.