Poll a sample instead of everyone and your answer carries a margin of errorThe half-width of the confidence interval around your result: a 40% βyesβ with a Β±3 point margin means the true figure is very likely between 37% and 43%. β a band the true figure very likely sits in. Pick how tight you want that band and how sure you want to be, and this is how many responses it takes. Run it backwards to see what a sample you already have can promise.
Enough to pin a result near 50% to within Β±3 points, 95% of the time, sampling from a very large population.
| Margin | Responses |
|---|---|
| Β±5 pts | 385 |
| Β±4 pts | 601 |
| Β±3 ptschosen | 1,068 |
| Β±2 pts | 2,401 |
| Β±1 pts | 9,604 |
| Β±0.5 pts | 38,415 |
Precision isn't linear: tightening the margin from Β±2 to Β±1 point doesn't cost double β it roughly quadruples the responses. The last point of precision is always the most expensive one.
Already have the responses? See the margin a sample buys β