Random IDs don't have to run out to bite you — two can just happen to match. It's the birthday problem: collisions start far sooner than the size of the space suggests. Pick a format and see how many you can mint before the odds of a duplicate cross the line you care about.
before a 1 in a million chance two collide — about 103,333 years at this rate.
Across 10,000 simulated runs the first collision lands somewhere in this curve, clustering around even odds at ≈ 2.7 × 10¹⁸ IDs. The marker is your budget at the selected risk — the safer you want to be, the further left of the pack you stop minting.
| Keep collisions under | Safe to mint |
|---|---|
50%even odds | 2.7 × 10¹⁸ IDs ≈ 8.6 × 10⁷ years |
10⁻³1 in a thousand | 1.0 × 10¹⁷ IDs ≈ 3.3 × 10⁶ years |
10⁻⁶1 in a million | 3.3 × 10¹⁵ IDs ≈ 103,333 years |
10⁻⁹1 in a billion | 1.0 × 10¹⁴ IDs ≈ 3267.7 years |
10⁻¹²1 in a trillion | 3.3 × 10¹² IDs ≈ 103.3 years |