How many lines until the busy signal?

Phone trunks, support agents, EV chargers, ICU beds — wherever "all busy" means turned away rather than queued, you're running a loss system. Agner Erlang worked out the arithmetic for Copenhagen's telephone exchange in 1917, and it still sizes anything that says no instead of please hold: given the traffic and the number of lines, his B formula gives the share of arrivals that hit a busy signal. Sizing is a tradeoff — every line you add idles most of the day, every line you don't turns callers away. Set the lines and read off the blocking, or set the blocking you'll tolerate and read off the minimum lines — and notice how big pools get away with running far hotter than small ones.

calls pereach holding a line for.
Answered bylines — find them all busy and you'returned awayErlang-B is a loss model: a blocked call simply vanishes — no queue, no hold music, no retry. If callers can wait instead, you're in M/M/c territory (see the queue cliff)..
100% blocked0.1%1%10%
1 line10206 lines23
Offered load 5 erlangsThe dimensionless unit of offered load: arrival rate × holding time. One erlang is one line continuously busy, so 5 erlangs is five lines' worth of demand — however many lines you actually have.: with 6 lines, 19% of calls hit a busy signal — about 460 a day. 11 lines gets you under 1%.
LinesBlockingLost / dayBusy / line
3
53%
1,271
78%
4
40%
956
75%
5
28%
684
72%
6you
19%
460
67%
7
12%
289
63%
8
7%
168
58%
9
3.7%
90
53%
10
1.8%
44
49%
11
0.83%
20
45%
12
0.34%
8.3
42%
13
0.13%
3.2
38%

Read down the blocking column: each extra line saves a shrinking absolute number of calls, yet the percentage falls off a cliff — a steady ratio per line, which is why the chart is log-scaled. And the bigger the pool, the hotter it runs: at 1% blocking, 2 erlangs of traffic needs 7 lines sitting 71% idle, while 50 erlangs gets by with 64 lines at 78% busy each. Pool two trunk groups into one and the combined group needs fewer lines at the same target — that's why consolidation wins. All of this assumes a blocked call vanishes; the moment callers can hold and wait instead, you're in M/M/c territory — the queue cliff.

Erlang-B (1917) · B(c, a) recursion