How many nines is your data?

"Eleven nines of durability" is the number cloud storage quietly leans on — 99.999999999% odds your object survives the year. It comes from a short sum: keep enough copies, and you only lose data if every copy dies inside the window it takes to rebuild a lost one. Feed in the copies, how often a drive fails, and how fast you repair, and read off the nines.

Each object hascopys, on drives that fail% a yearAnnualized failure rate: the chance a single drive (and the copy on it) dies within a year. Real-world disk AFRs run roughly 1–5%..
A lost copy takesto rebuildThe repair (or rebuild) window: how long a copy stays missing before redundancy is restored. The shorter it is, the smaller the chance a second copy dies while you're exposed..
9nines of durability

That's 99.9999999% odds a given object survives the year — roughly 1 loss in 2.8 billion object-years.

9×9nines
1 in 2.8 billionper object-year
1 / 3ylost objects
storeobjects

With 1 billion objects stored, this durability means you'd expect to lose one about every 3 years — comfortably rare.

CopiesDurability
1 copy
1 nines
98%
2 copys
5 nines
99.999%
3 copysnow
9 nines
99.9999999%
4 copys
13 nines
99.99999999999%
5 copys
16 nines
99.99999999999999%
6 copys
20 nines
99.999999999999999999%

Each copy multiplies the odds the rest are all gone before a rebuild finishes, so durability climbs in big jumps — every replica adds several nines at once. The same lever works the other way: halve the rebuild time and you shrink the window for a cascade, buying nines without buying disks.

the independent-failure durability approximation — a back-of-envelope, not a guarantee